Lipoti latsopano lopangidwa ndi anthu ambiri omwe ali ndi mphamvu zowonjezera mphamvu zowonjezera REN21 lomwe latulutsidwa sabata ino lapeza kuti akatswiri ambiri padziko lonse lapansi pazamphamvu ali ndi chidaliro kuti dziko lapansi litha kusintha kukhala 100% ya tsogolo lamphamvu zongowonjezwdwa pofika pakati pa zaka za zana lino.
Komabe, chidaliro pa kuthekera kwa kusinthaku kumayenda kuchokera kudera kupita kudera, ndipo pali chikhulupiliro chaponseponse kuti magawo monga zoyendera ali ndi zomwe angachite ngati tsogolo lawo lidzakhala loyera 100%.
Lipotilo, lotchedwa REN21 Renewables Global Futures, lidayika mitu 12 yotsutsana kwa akatswiri odziwika bwino amagetsi 114 ochokera kumakona anayi adziko lapansi.Cholinga chake chinali kulimbikitsa ndi kuyambitsa mkangano pazovuta zazikulu zomwe zimakumana ndi mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso, ndipo anali osamala kuphatikiza okayikira mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa monga gawo la omwe adafunsidwa.
Palibe zoneneratu kapena zoyerekeza zomwe zidapangidwa;m'malo, mayankho a akatswiri ndi malingaliro adapangidwa kuti apange chithunzi chogwirizana cha komwe anthu amakhulupirira kuti tsogolo lamphamvu likupita.Yankho lodziwika bwino lomwe lidachokera ku Funso 1: "100% zongowonjezeranso - zotsatira zomveka za Pangano la Paris?"Kwa izi, oposa 70% omwe adafunsidwa adakhulupirira kuti dziko lapansi likhoza kukhala 100% mothandizidwa ndi mphamvu zowonjezereka ndi 2050, ndi akatswiri a ku Ulaya ndi ku Australia akuthandizira kwambiri maganizo awa.
Nthawi zambiri panali "mgwirizano waukulu" kuti zongowonjezwdwa zizilamulira gawo lamagetsi, pomwe akatswiri akuwona kuti ngakhale makampani akuluakulu apadziko lonse lapansi tsopano akusankha zopangira mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa mwina kuchokera kuzinthu zomwe zimagwiritsa ntchito ndalama mwachindunji.
Pafupifupi 70% ya akatswiri omwe anafunsidwa anali ndi chidaliro kuti mtengo wa zongowonjezwdwa udzapitirirabe kugwa, ndipo udzachepetsa mosavuta mtengo wa mafuta onse oyaka mafuta pofika chaka cha 2027. Mofananamo, ambiri ali ndi chidaliro chakuti kukula kwa GDP kungathe kuchepetsedwa kuchokera ku mphamvu zowonjezera mphamvu, ndi mayiko. osiyanasiyana monga Denmark ndi China adatchula ngati zitsanzo za mayiko omwe atha kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu koma akusangalalabe ndi chuma.
Mavuto akulu azindikiridwa
Chiyembekezo chokhala ndi tsogolo labwino pakati pa akatswiri 114 aja chinali chitakhazikika chifukwa cha kudziletsa kwanthawi zonse, makamaka m'mawu ena ku Japan, US ndi Africa komwe kukayikira za kuthekera kwa zigawozi kugwira ntchito mokwanira pa 100% mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa kunali kofala.Makamaka, zokonda zamakampani wamba zamagetsi zidatchulidwa kuti ndizolepheretsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zamagetsi.
Ponena za mayendedwe, "kusintha kwanthawi" kumafunika kuti kuthetseretu mphamvu zoyera za gawoli, lipotilo linapeza.Kusintha kwa injini zoyaka ndi zoyendetsa magetsi sikungakhale kokwanira kusintha gawoli, akatswiri ambiri akukhulupirira, pomwe kukumbatirana kwakukulu kwa njanji m'malo motengera mayendedwe amsewu kudzakhudza kwambiri.Komabe, ndi ochepa amene amakhulupirira kuti zimenezi n’zotheka.
Ndipo monga kale, akatswiri ambiri amadzudzula maboma omwe adalephera kupereka chitsimikizo cha nthawi yayitali pazachuma zongobweza - kulephera kwa utsogoleri komwe kumawonedwa kutali monga ku UK ndi US, mpaka ku sub-Saharan Africa ndi South America.
"Lipotili likupereka malingaliro osiyanasiyana a akatswiri, ndipo likufuna kuyambitsa zokambirana ndi kukangana za mwayi ndi zovuta zomwe zingapezeke 100% ya tsogolo la mphamvu zowonjezereka m'zaka zapakati," adatero mlembi wamkulu wa REN21 Christine Lins.“Kungolakalaka sikudzatifikitsa kumeneko;Pokhapokha pomvetsetsa bwino za zovutazo ndikuchita mkangano wodziwa bwino za momwe angawathetsere, maboma angatsatire ndondomeko zoyenera ndi zolimbikitsa zachuma kuti afulumizitse kuthamanga kwa ntchitoyo. "
Wapampando wa REN21 Arthouros Zervos adawonjezeranso kuti ochepa akadakhulupirira kale mu 2004 (pamene REN21 idakhazikitsidwa) kuti pofika chaka cha 2016 mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa zitha kuwerengera 86% yamagetsi onse atsopano a EU, kapena kuti China ikhala mphamvu yayikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi."Kuyitanira ndiye 100% mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa sizinatengedwe mozama," adatero Zervos."Masiku ano, akatswiri otsogola padziko lonse lapansi akukambirana za kuthekera kwake, komanso nthawi yake."
Zotsatira zowonjezera
Lipotilo 'zokambirana za 12' zinakhudza mitu yambiri, makamaka kufunsa za 100% tsogolo la mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa, komanso zotsatirazi: momwe kufunikira kwa mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi ndi mphamvu zogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu kungagwirizane bwino;ndi 'wopambana amatenga zonse' pankhani yopanga mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa;Kutentha kwa magetsi kudzaposa kutentha;kuchuluka kwa msika komwe magalimoto amagetsi angatenge;ndi kusunga mpikisano kapena wothandizira wa gridi yamagetsi;kuthekera kwa mizinda yayikulu, ndi kuthekera kowonjezeranso kupititsa patsogolo mwayi wamagetsi kwa onse.
Akatswiri 114 omwe adafunsidwa adatengedwa kuchokera padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo lipoti la REN21 lidagawa mayankho awo apakati malinga ndi dera.Umu ndi momwe akatswiri achigawo chilichonse adayankhira:
●Kwa Africa, chigwirizano chodziwika bwino chinali chakuti mkangano wopeza mphamvu ukupitirirabe mkangano wa 100% wa mphamvu zowonjezera.
●Ku Australia ndi Oceania chofunikira kwambiri chinali chakuti pali ziyembekezo zazikulu za 100% zowonjezera.
●Akatswiri aku China amakhulupirira kuti madera ena aku China atha kukwaniritsa zongowonjezera 100%, koma amakhulupirira kuti ichi ndi cholinga chofuna kutchuka padziko lonse lapansi.
● Chodetsa nkhaŵa kwambiri ku Ulaya ndikuwonetsetsa kuti chithandizo champhamvu cha 100% chowonjezeredwa chothana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo.
●Ku India, mkangano wongowonjezera 100% ukupitilirabe, ndipo theka la omwe adafunsidwa akukhulupirira kuti cholinga chake sichingachitike pofika 2050.
● Kwa dera la Latam, mkangano wokhudza 100% wongowonjezedwanso sunayambe, ndi zinthu zovuta kwambiri zomwe zilipo panopa.
● Kuvuta kwa mlengalenga ku Japan kukuchepetsa ziyembekezo za kuthekera kwa 100% zongowonjezera, akatswiri mdzikolo adatero.
● Ku US kuli kukayikira kwakukulu za 100% zongowonjezwdwa ndi akatswiri awiri okha mwa asanu ndi atatu omwe amakhulupirira kuti zikhoza kuchitika.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jun-03-2019